Early sales forecasts for Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed Black Flag remake suggest the company may finally have a stronger-performing release on its hands than Assassin’s Creed Shadows, the series’ latest main entry.

According to analyst Rhys Elliot in a post on Substack, Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced is shaping up to be a badly needed success for Ubisoft. That optimism comes at a time when the publisher has been under pressure, following a rough stretch defined by layoffs, studio shutdowns, and uneven game launches.

Why Resynced Matters More Than Usual

The contrast with Assassin’s Creed Shadows is hard to ignore. Released in 2025 after a significant delay and months of controversy before launch, Shadows arrived with plenty of anticipation thanks to its feudal Japan setting. Even so, it did not fully convert that interest into the kind of commercial momentum Ubisoft likely wanted.

Support for Shadows has now wrapped up. Ubisoft recently delivered the game’s final update, bringing post-launch development to a close after 12 months and one expansion.

The publisher also has not shared a current official sales total for Shadows. What Ubisoft did say is that the game crossed 5 million players in mid-2025, though that number includes users who played through a subscription service rather than direct purchases alone.

Shadows Sales, By the Numbers

Elliot estimates that Assassin’s Creed Shadows has sold 5.7 million copies so far. Based on his breakdown, PC accounts for 23.8% of that figure, or roughly 1.3 million units. He also claims PS5 made up 53.6% of sales, with Xbox representing the remaining 23.6%.

Those numbers help place Shadows in the broader context of the franchise. Assassin’s Creed Odyssey is known to have sold at least 10 million copies, while Assassin’s Creed Valhalla generated $1 billion in revenue, even if Ubisoft never attached a precise unit-sales figure to that milestone.

What Black Flag Resynced Is Actually Offering

Rather than revisiting every part of the original release, Resynced is described as a full remake centered on Black Flag’s core Caribbean adventure. That means the spotlight stays on Edward Kenway and major pirate-era characters including Blackbeard, Charles Vane, and Anne Bonny.

Ubisoft is not bringing back everything from the original package. The remake does not include Black Flag’s multiplayer mode or its modern-day storyline segments. Instead, it appears the focus is on strengthening the main narrative, with new material integrated directly into that central campaign.

A Safer Bet for Ubisoft

Elliot argues that this approach makes strategic sense for Ubisoft right now. In his view, leaning on a beloved Assassin’s Creed game with a strong existing reputation is a far less risky move than trying to launch an entirely new blockbuster property during a difficult period for the company.

“Black Flag Resynced is a timely strategy for a struggling Ubisoft,” Elliot wrote. “After a turbulent few years of costly development, delays, and high-profile misses, Ubisoft is dealing with fractured pipelines.”

He added that high-end remakes of proven classics offer a lower-risk path forward because they build on a widely praised design foundation while also benefiting from an audience that already knows and loves the original.

It’s an especially notable point given the long shadow of Skull & Bones, a project that famously grew out of the naval technology and pirate appeal that made Black Flag stand out in the first place.

Launch Timing

Assassin’s Creed Black Flag Resynced launches this Thursday, July 9. If you’re planning to jump in right away, IGN has also posted a release times guide.

Tom Phillips is IGN's News Editor. You can reach Tom at tom_phillips@ign.com or find him on Bluesky @tomphillipseg.bsky.social